History Repeats itself, a new MGR? no I guess a bigger one!




They say history repeats itself. I expected a strong swing to TVK but this was even stronger than I estimated as I gave 91 seats to TVK earlier.

I had estimated more losses to ADMK than DMK, but it went in reverse. I guess the biggest blunder DMK did, in my opinion, was projecting Udhayanidhi Stalin as successor, his own party heavy weights didn't like it and some jumped to TVK. ADMK seems to have held a stronghold in the caste belts, I was surprised, goes to show how caste crazy some constituencies stil are unfortunately.

On TVK, Looks like we have a new MGR style regime or even a bigger one, because MGR became a CM after over 10 years of political campaign work and two prior elections wins to Assembly. Vijay did it in just one!

But with a hung assembly the real horse trading will start. BJP will pull a lot of strings with its ED/IT and with bucket loads of money. Will TVK be forced to ally with ADMK+ or not we will have to wait and see because there are many smaller parties which can be pulled to secure the assembly majority. If he takes ADMK + BJP to form government, then next election DMK will also gain back some of its losses.

Lets see how the next few years go, with a hung assembly I suspect a re-election as many people will pull strings and completing five years will be a real tough nut to crack.

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